Is Biden Ready? China’s Tonya Harding View

I was on a discussion panel with a senior policy person from China, all off the record, so no names or titles please. This policy person made an acute if unsettling analogy: Many Chinese view Donald Trump’s criticisms of China akin to the attack on U.S. figure skater Nancy Kerrigan by people connected to her longtime rival Tonya Harding. For those readers with short memories, Harding was involved in an attack intended to injure Kerrigan’s leg just prior to the 1994 Olympic Games, when she had been favored to win the gold medal. In other words, Trump’s moves against China were born out of malice and jealousy over China’s rise. China expert Julian Gewirtz explains, “China’s rulers believe that the past four years have shown that the United States is rapidly declining and that this deterioration has caused Washington to frantically try to suppress China’s rise.”  

My Chinese colleague closed his comment with words to the effect that no matter how many times you attack us, we will continue to grow and prosper, and in perhaps a decade, China will be the largest economy in the world.

Given Trump’s pugnacity, I did not find this statement surprising, for who among us would enjoy being on the receiving end of Trump’s criticism? But that attitude also holds a challenge for both the U.S. and China.

The challenge for the U.S. would be if its policymakers to assume that problems with China are intractable and is therefore destined to be some sort of adversary. Fortunately, Biden’s victory provides an opportunity for a reset. Some of these issues are long-term and have much to do with U.S.-China geostrategic competition. These issues will not be easily solved, though improved communication and a commitment to stability would at least make ongoing deterioration unlikely. Relations might not easily improve, but let’s at least make sure they don’t fall apart.

China has a somewhat similar challenge: not to view relations with the U.S. through a lens of historical determinism. Can China take advantage of this change in the U.S. to show flexibility on some issues? Let’s think about the key China goals in its relations with the U.S.: Reducing the rancor and day-to-day criticism of China and stopping ongoing deterioration in the relationship; Not showing weakness toward the U.S. or making concessions in the face of pressure. Thus form and presentation style might be as important as the specific move.

The Rise of the Declinists

As Gewirtz notes, some China hands speculate that China leadership is so wedded to a belief in the inevitably of a U.S. decline that no accommodation or gestures is thought necessary. But shouldn’t we look at gratuitous friction in international affairs as a standalone cost, regardless of whether China’s position is strengthening or not? In other words, a relative rise of China speaks only to its ability to have its way. Can it have its way with as little friction or cost as possible is a largely unrelated point. Regardless of how China feels regarding its relative strength, it should still believe in advancing its agenda with minimal ill will.

China might want to develop a menu of policy options that might carry goodwill with the U.S., but would not be costly to China, either substantively or in terms of reputation. 

Here are a few ideas.

Support Taiwan’s membership in the World Health Organization. China does not like the idea of giving the current Taiwan government a victory of any sorts, so this might be too much to ask. But China has supported (or tolerated) Taiwan membership in the WTO, APEC, and other international bodies, so this seems at a minimum plausible—and it would be a signal to the world community that China is not reflexively placing its cross-straits policy ahead of global health concerns.

Release the Canadian prisoners for health reasons. China arrested two Canadians working in China, Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor, when Canada arrested Meng Wanzhou, the CFO of Huawei, indicating it placed a higher value on tit-for-tat politics than for rule of law, and damaging its relations with Canada to boot. Unwinding that move would help China.

Grant visas to journalists. China has signaled disfavor with various media outlets and individuals by withholding or not renewing visas, which seems to work against China’s long-term interests. Despite the occasional tough or critical article, the international media is China’s best opportunity to get a fair hearing internationally.

Announce on-going tariff reductions to eliminate gaps between China and other major trading powers. President Xi Jinping has announced and carried out tariff reductions in autos and other sectors. Keeping that process going would do much to improve China’s standing, and help China’s economy to boot.

(Oh, and for those readers who might ask what steps the U.S. could take: I have repeatedly called for the U.S. to revoke the tariffs President Trump imposed, consistent with China also removing the tariffs it put in place to retaliate.)

If the U.S. views problems with China as an immutable aspect of foreign policy, there is no reason to try to tackle some of the challenges and the prospect of ongoing deterioration becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. Similarly, if China views all U.S. criticism as illegitimate or bad faith, if the U.S. is perceived only as a gang of assailants, China will not try to tackle the substantive points—leaving both China and the U.S. the worse for it.