China braced to become leader of the free world, global analyst says
China — not Donald Trump — is the real story, says one global analyst.
Ian Bremmer said Monday that the two most important geopolitical speeches he's heard were former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev's 1991 speech on the end of the Soviet Union, and in Vietnam last week, when Chinese President Xi Jinping announced his country would become the leader of the free world.
"There's no leadership out there; don't worry, we will take on the leadership of the free world," Bremmer paraphrased Xi before a few hundred attending the Global Financial Leadership Conference at the Ritz-Carlton Beach Resort in North Naples on Monday.
"It's the rise of China."
Bremmer said he heard Xi speak while attending the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Vietnam.
When President Trump addressed APEC — which unites 21 economies from the Pacific region — he mainly highlighted trade imbalances and blamed prior U.S. administrations. By contrast, Xi underscored free trade and how multilateral trade deals benefit all countries, especially developing ones.
Bremmer said the U.S. media focused on Xi's speech briefly and continued to produce stories mainly on Trump.
"I don't talk much about Trump because American presidents don't matter that much," he said.
"Trump says things that, if you take it at face value, won't matter," said Bremmer, president and founder of Eurasia Group, an international political risk research and consulting firm.
And Trump's military leadership — namely Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and National Security Adviser Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster — is more in alignment with Democratic rival Hillary Rodham Clinton's beliefs than that of former President Barack Obama, Bremmer said.
"The difference is, Trump makes mistakes in foreign policy that need to be rolled back," he said, referring to Tillerson and McMaster, who often add clarity or downplay what Trump says.
"Even on North Korea, I'm not as worried. It means that Trump is finding a way to back away from fire and fury."
Bremmer also pointed to some of Trump's campaign promises, such as having Mexico pay for a wall along the U.S. southern border.
"When is the last time you heard Trump say, 'Mexico is going to pay for the wall'? " Bremmer asked.
Trump is brilliant at being able to "pivot away from" issues or topics that aren't working for him, Bremmer said.
The topic of Trump continued when author and venture capitalist J.D. Vance took the stage. Vance, known for his best-selling memoir "Hillbilly Elegy," grew up in rural Ohio in what many consider "Trump country."
Vance remains connected to friends and family there, acknowledging that many supported Trump in the 2016 presidential campaign but many also endorsed Democratic contender Sen. Bernie Sanders.
"What worries me most is supporting Trump to most people is a belief that they've already given up," Vance said. "What it is is this culture against people they don't like."
Bremmer agreed.
"It's a cultural identity difference," he said. "It's not the belief that Trump will make things better for them."
Vance said the political and cultural divide in America is great and likely will continue to be in the near future. To perhaps delineate such a difference, he asked how many of those attending had ever visited a Cracker Barrel restaurant.
A small number out of maybe 300 attending raised their hands.
"We're at a point where the way of political rhetoric doesn't resonate on the other side, and vice versa," Vance said.
Gillian Tett, U.S. managing editor of the Financial Times, moderated the discussion.
Earlier Monday afternoon, former President George W. Bush and his brother, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, addressed the gathering in a session that was closed to the media.
Speakers on tap for Tuesday — also closed to journalists — include billionaire Sir Richard Branson and former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg.
An afternoon session on truth in media will feature MSNBC's Joe Scarborough, former New York Times Executive Editor Jill Abramson and Brit Hume, Fox News' managing editor and chief Washington correspondent.
Bremmer perhaps foreshadowed the media discussion when he talked about how many people receive their news nowadays.
"The media is one of the few institutions less popular than Trump is," he said.
Vance continued on that topic.
"When someone shares something on Facebook, that's more popular than from a mainstream media outlet," Vance said.
The annual conference at The Ritz draws up to 350 of the Chicago-based CME Group's top clients. Terry Duffy, CME Group executive chairman and president, lives in Naples and began the conference 10 years ago.
The CME Group is the largest futures exchange in the world
Past speakers at the event include former President Bill Clinton. former Secretaries of State Hillary Rodham Clinton and Condoleezza Rice, and former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker.